Forecasting Philippine Monthly Inflation Using TRAMO/SEATS
Philippine Journals Online
View Archive Info| Field | Value | |
| Title |
Forecasting Philippine Monthly Inflation Using TRAMO/SEATS
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| Creator |
Cesar C Rufino; De La Salle University
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| Subject |
Economics
Inflation; inflation rates; economic forecasts; economic forecasting; forecasting techniques |
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| Description |
The study aims to explore the feasibility of adopting for inflation forecasting a sophisticatedexpert system normally used in routine outlier detection and deseasonalization of time series.Known as TRAMO/SEATS expert system, this twin program is a fully automatic procedurethat extracts the trend-cycle, seasonal, irregular and certain transitory components of highfrequency time series via the so-called ARIMA-model-based method. The results of the studyreveal the feasibility of the use of the technique for routine inflation forecasting. The automaticmodel building capability of TRAMO/SEATS is exploited to arrive at an ex-ante model that hasthe ability to generate optimal forecasts. The results show the ability of the final model toforecast inflation with remarkable accuracy.Keywords: Inflation; inflation rates; economic forecasts; economic forecasting; forecastingtechniquesDOI: 10.3860/ber.v20i1.1665DLSU Business & Economics Review 20.1 (2010), pp. 1-11
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| Publisher |
De La Salle University
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| Contributor |
—
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| Date |
2010-07-26
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| Type |
Peer-reviewed Article
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| Format |
application/pdf
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| Identifier |
http://www.philjol.info/index.php/BER/article/view/1665
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| Source |
DLSU Business & Economics Review; Vol 20, No 1 (2010); 1-11
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| Language |
en
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| Coverage |
Philippines
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